Taylor Swift’s “Look What You Made Me Do” has led the Billboard Hot 100 chart for three weeks. On the latest list (dated Sept. 30), below Swift’s smash, Cardi B’s “Bodak Yellow (Money Moves)” pushes 3-2, likely setting up a battle for No. 1 next week.
Meanwhile, a song not yet on the Hot 100, per new data, should also challenge for No. 1 upon its debut: Post Malone’s new single “Rockstar,” featuring 21 Savage.
On the next Hot 100 (dated Oct. 7), can rapper Cardi B’s breakthrough hit or Post Malone’s new release dethrone pop titan Swift’s leader?
Let’s run some projections. Highlights of next week’s Hot 100, which blends streaming, airplay and sales data, according to Nielsen Music, will post on Billboard.com Monday (Sept. 25).
Based on preliminary data for the tracking week, incumbent No. 1 “Look” could draw more than 30 million U.S. streams and 75 million in radio audience and sell more than 45,000 downloads. (Of those metrics, only airplay might show a gain week-over-week.)
However, current runner-up “Yellow” could tally more than 35 million U.S. streams and 60 million airplay impressions and, like “Look,” sell more than 45,000 (with the last two metrics increasing from this week).
Meanwhile, per new data received this afternoon (Sept. 22), Post Malone’s “Rockstar” could launch with more than 40 million U.S. streams and 70,000 sold (as well as a building first-week airplay sum).
Based on those forecasts, the songs should engage in a tight battle for No. 1, with “Rockstar” or “Yellow,” given their growth in streaming, perhaps enough to give either song the edge over “Look,” and possibly grant Post Malone, 21 Savage or Cardi B each act’s first trip to the top of the Hot 100.
Also looking ahead to next week’s Hot 100, Logic’s “1-800-273-8255,” featuring Alessia Cara and Khalid, could earn more than 30 million U.S. streams and 45 million in radio audience and sell more than 30,000, keeping it in the top five conversation, although likely not in the race for No. 1. (On the Sept. 30 chart, it rises to a new No. 3 high.)
Check back Monday, Sept. 25, to find out who’s No. 1 and for highlights of the Hot 100’s top 10 and more.1 of 1